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Comparing Year-Over-Year Deaths in Red & Blue States: A Pattern of COVID-19’s Impact Emerges

With some states claiming testing is in short supply, and hospitals attributing COVID-19 deaths through different methodologies, many analysts are looking to the blunter measure of total deaths (i.e. total deaths from all causes).

We compare total death from all states for the entire months of March & April for 2019 & 2020. (CDC state data for total deaths. May data is still incomplete).

By comparing total death for March & April of this year with those from the same period last year, a rough measure of the pandemic’s impact emerges.

The data from this analysis supports the idea that Red states (Conservative ideology) are faring better than Blue states (Liberal ideology). We report these numbers so public policy experts can take note of the differences between states when they plan for future pandemics.

Surprisingly, there are states for which their total deaths year-over-year have decreased.

The dramatic increase in deaths year-over-year is mostly attributed to the following regions: New York City (city independently measured by CDC), New Jersey, New York State (excluding New York City), Massachusetts, District of Columbia, Michigan, Illinois, Colorado, and Lousiana. New York City is seeing an increase of 20,874 total deaths year-over-year, which is a dramatic 224% increase.

Overall % Change in Deaths by StateMarch/April 2019 vs. March/April 2020


Table: Comparing Total Deaths: March/April 2019 vs. March/April 2020

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